SoLEXS flux timeline
Hover over the chart for values.
SoLEXS flux
Baseline
Alert threshold
Watch
Warning
Alert (strip along the top)
Red vertical line: alert fired, after the sustain window.
Replay re-runs the system on data up to the chosen time only. Nothing after that point reaches the nowcast or forecast. Horizontal guides mark C1, M1 and X1 using the two-flare calibration, so treat them as indicative.
Nowcast: flare in progress
No data
- SoLEXS flux
- -
- Baseline (trailing median)
- -
- Flux over baseline
- -
- GOES-equivalent
- -
Forecast: next 60 minutes
No data
- Flare probability
- -
- Base rate
- -
- Relative to base rate
- -
- Level cutoffs (watch, warning, alert)
- -
- Model
- -
Held-out skill is about 1.3 times the base rate, so read the probability as a ranking of risk, not a calibrated frequency.
Detected flares
| Est. onset (UTC) | Alert fired (UTC) | Peak (UTC) | Peak flux | Class | HEL1OS corroboration |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Diagnostics
Checks that the API, data file, model and optional inputs are in place, and says what to fix.
Data health
- Samples in view
- -
- SoLEXS good-time coverage
- -
- HEL1OS zero-count fraction
- -
- Data file updated
- -
Evaluation
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